Pennsylvania’s Uninsured Rate at an All Time Low?

Donny Deutsch at MSNBC’s Morning Joe claimed that “Once again the party of no,” Deutsch said on July 1, 2014. “The country’s will was for immigration reform, they’re against it. Minimum wage, we want to raise it for everybody, another populist point of view. They don’t want to do it. By the way, 13 percent of Americans, the lowest ever, are without health care. Everything is going in the right direction.”  The website PunditFact rated his statement as half true because he seemed to be relying on the quarterly Gallup Survey which is seen below which dates back to 2009 when the debate over the Affordable Care Act began.

That is one survey however.  The Census Bureau has been measuring the rates with annual estimates since 1999 based on the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the state and national rates, as shown in the chart below.  There has been a decline in the national rate from 2009-2012 but they are still above the pre-recession levels.  The methods to measure these rates have evolved over time.  Pennsylvania’s rate has leveled off during the recession with an increase in 2012.

PA SAHIE 2012

The Census Bureau uses another annual survey to estimate the uninsured rates at the local level, the American Community Survey to produce the Small Area Health Insurance Estimates.  The estimates for 2012 are now out and are presented in the tables below with their respective margins of error. Over the years Philadelphia and Sullivan Counties have consistently had the top 2 rates in the state.  Lancaster County’s rate has changed little over the years and is now third.  The 6th thru the tenth ranked counties are now all from the western half of the state.  Allegheny County’s rate has remained stable since 2010.

The trend for each of the state’s 67 counties is presented at the bottom.  Pennsylvania’s rate looks different than in the graph above because different surveys were used but the basic trend is the same with the rate holding steady.  Taken together these surveys do not suggest that the uninsured rate is at an all time low.  Of course estimate for 2013 will be needed because that is when the ACA was fully implemented to assess it’s impact but up to 2012, when it was partially implemented seems to have had little effect for Pennsylvania.

Top 10 County Uninsured Rates in PA
county
% Uninsured 2012
MOE Uninsured 12 (+/- %)
1
Philadelphia
15.80
.70
2
Sullivan
14.70
1.40
3
Lancaster
14.50
.90
4
Susquehanna
14.40
1.20
5
Mifflin
14.30
1.30
6
Forest
14.20
1.50
7
Juniata
14.10
1.30
8
Crawford
13.80
1.10
9
Bedford
13.70
1.10
10
Indiana
13.60
1.20
Total
N
10
10
10
a. Limited to first 10 cases.

 

 PA Uninsured Rates 2008-2012

 

county

% Uninsured 2008

% Uninsured 2009

% Uninsured 2010

% Uninsured 2011

% Uninsured 2012

MOE Uninsured 12 (+/- %)

1 Pennsylvania

10.60

11.70

12.10

12.00

11.70

.20

2 Adams

11.60

12.40

12.40

12.50

12.30

1.00

3 Allegheny

9.10

10.40

10.40

10.30

10.20

.60

4 Armstrong

12.20

11.80

12.10

12.10

11.30

1.00

5 Beaver

9.70

9.90

10.20

10.90

10.10

.80

6 Bedford

12.80

12.80

14.40

14.30

13.70

1.10

7 Berks

10.40

12.40

12.40

12.70

13.10

.80

8 Blair

10.30

11.80

12.20

11.20

11.20

1.00

9 Bradford

11.60

12.90

13.80

13.40

13.10

1.10

10 Bucks

7.60

8.00

8.80

8.70

8.70

.60

11 Butler

8.70

9.80

9.70

9.60

9.10

.70

12 Cambria

11.10

12.10

12.00

11.20

10.60

.80

13 Cameron

12.50

13.00

13.10

12.40

11.80

1.20

14 Carbon

11.60

11.90

13.40

12.40

12.20

1.10

15 Centre

10.60

11.20

12.60

11.80

12.00

1.20

16 Chester

7.90

8.50

9.50

9.50

8.80

.60

17 Clarion

12.70

13.60

13.80

13.50

12.40

1.20

18 Clearfield

12.60

13.50

13.20

12.70

11.80

1.00

19 Clinton

11.50

12.60

13.40

13.80

11.90

1.10

20 Columbia

11.30

11.90

12.00

11.90

10.20

1.00

21 Crawford

13.20

14.10

14.60

14.80

13.80

1.10

22 Cumberland

9.30

9.90

9.70

9.70

9.70

.80

23 Dauphin

10.20

11.80

11.70

11.70

11.60

.90

24 Delaware

9.10

10.00

10.90

10.20

10.60

.70

25 Elk

9.90

10.70

10.80

11.30

10.30

1.00

26 Erie

11.00

11.30

11.90

12.50

10.60

.80

27 Fayette

12.10

13.80

13.50

13.30

12.80

1.00

28 Forest

13.40

15.10

14.20

13.90

14.20

1.50

29 Franklin

12.80

13.80

14.00

14.60

13.20

1.10

30 Fulton

12.90

13.30

13.30

12.90

12.60

1.20

31 Greene

10.90

13.10

11.30

11.10

10.10

1.00

32 Huntingdon

12.80

15.30

12.30

12.70

11.50

1.00

33 Indiana

12.00

13.70

13.90

12.50

13.60

1.20

34 Jefferson

12.10

12.70

14.20

13.90

13.00

1.10

35 Juniata

13.60

14.30

15.60

14.40

14.10

1.30

36 Lackawanna

10.20

11.10

12.60

12.20

11.80

.90

37 Lancaster

13.20

13.90

14.40

14.20

14.50

.90

38 Lawrence

12.10

11.90

12.70

12.30

11.70

1.00

39 Lebanon

11.60

11.70

12.10

11.10

12.30

1.00

40 Lehigh

11.60

12.00

12.80

13.30

13.60

.90

41 Luzerne

10.40

11.40

12.90

12.50

12.70

.90

42 Lycoming

10.70

12.40

12.60

13.50

11.50

1.00

43 McKean

10.30

12.90

12.40

11.90

11.90

1.10

44 Mercer

10.70

11.90

12.10

12.00

10.70

.90

45 Mifflin

12.90

14.50

15.80

14.90

14.30

1.30

46 Monroe

12.20

12.50

13.40

14.40

13.50

1.00

47 Montgomery

7.30

8.00

8.10

8.40

8.00

.50

48 Montour

7.90

10.00

10.00

10.50

8.90

1.00

49 Northampton

9.80

11.40

11.10

11.10

11.20

.80

50 Northumberland

12.10

13.30

13.30

13.00

12.90

1.10

51 Perry

12.90

12.10

14.20

14.40

12.80

1.10

52 Philadelphia

13.80

16.30

16.50

16.30

15.80

.70

53 Pike

12.40

11.50

13.60

13.10

13.60

1.10

54 Potter

11.30

13.10

14.40

13.70

12.70

1.20

55 Schuylkill

10.70

12.10

12.00

12.30

12.30

.90

56 Snyder

12.40

15.10

14.00

14.90

13.30

1.20

57 Somerset

13.30

14.10

15.00

13.90

12.80

1.00

58 Sullivan

15.60

14.80

15.90

14.30

14.70

1.40

59 Susquehanna

12.70

13.40

14.80

14.00

14.40

1.20

60 Tioga

12.70

14.70

14.70

14.20

13.40

1.20

61 Union

13.70

16.70

13.70

12.30

12.00

1.20

62 Venango

10.90

12.40

12.90

12.30

12.10

1.00

63 Warren

10.00

11.90

12.40

12.70

12.10

1.10

64 Washington

10.70

10.10

10.70

10.70

9.60

.80

65 Wayne

13.20

13.20

14.80

13.50

12.90

1.10

66 Westmoreland

9.90

10.10

10.50

10.20

9.60

.70

67 Wyoming

11.00

11.30

11.30

11.80

11.90

1.10

68 York

10.30

10.20

11.10

11.70

10.90

.70

 

Change in Bankruptcy and Health Outcomes

 

Personal and Medical Bankruptcies: A Follow Up

Recent Uninsured Trends and the ACA

 

The Affordable Care Act Having an Impact in Some States but not Pennsylvania

 

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) having little effect on PA’s Uninsured Rate So Far

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